October 30: Big tech dominoes fall despite US GDP growth of 3.4%, ‘father of the nation’ Choi Bul-am passes away, and 542 trillion won retirement pension fund-type major surgery occurs

The U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the third quarter was 3.4% per year, well above market expectations and hitting the highest level in a year, and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index increase rate in September was also slightly below expectations at 3.6% compared to the previous year, but in the New York Stock Exchange, big tech and AI software technology stocks fell like dominoes. Alphabet (Google), which showed a free cash flow deficit (-$9.07 billion) for two consecutive quarters despite doubling cloud sales the previous day during regular trading, plunged 12.6%, evaporating about $500 billion (approximately KRW 670 trillion) in market capitalization in one day. This is the second-largest decrease in daily market capitalization of a single company in U.S. stock market history, after Nvidia last year. ServiceNow, which was considered a leader in enterprise AI software, also saw its quarterly sales increase by more than 20%, but its adjusted earnings per share ($1.00) fell below market expectations ($1.02) and even its contract growth forecast for the next quarter (18.5%) fell below expectations (about 20%), falling more than 24% in one day, its worst day since listing. Sent.

Even Amazon (-7%) and Intel (-20%), which announced their earnings immediately after the market closed, both plummeted in after-hours trading, adding to the shock. Amazon's core Amazon Web Services (AWS) sales surged 39% year-on-year to $46 billion, the fastest growth rate in about five years, and its company-wide operating profit also exceeded expectations at $28.1 billion. However, in the three months of the third quarter alone, capital investment (CapEx) for purchasing AI data center buildings and server equipment amounted to $77.3 billion (approximately KRW 103 trillion), more than double the amount a year ago ($35.1 billion). The pouring was holding me back. As a result of investing much more money into the data center than earned, the free cash flow (FCF) for the past year, which was a surplus of +14.8 billion a year ago, flipped to -$42.4 billion (about 57 trillion won in deficit), and overall sales ($201.9 billion) and earnings per share ($1.89) overlapped to the point where they were slightly below expectations, leading to a flood of listings. Intel also exceeded expectations with 3rd quarter sales ($16.5 billion) and adjusted earnings per share ($0.52) due to strong data centers, but its 4th quarter adjusted earnings per share forecast was lowered to $0.25, half of Wall Street expectations ($0.43-0.44), and its sales forecast was drastically lowered to $15-$16 billion (market expectations of about $17.1 billion), plummeting by more than 20% in the after-hours. Intel CEO Lipbutan predicted that the PC market slump would continue until at least the first half of next year as the price of memory components for general PCs also skyrocketed due to Big Tech's sweep of memory for AI servers, and explained that short-term supply bottlenecks and several weeks of operational disruptions due to an accident at the Kiryatgat plant in Israel had cut into profitability.

In macro indicators, the ratio of federal government debt to GDP in the United States reached 100% on an annual basis for the first time since 1946 immediately after World War II, and the European Central Bank (ECB) froze the deposit interest rate at 2.50% per year. In the domestic stock market, Samsung Electronics, which announced its highest performance ever, plunged by more than 4% as it postponed its decision to return shareholders to January next year, and in the securities market, there was an analysis that SK Hynix's 20 trillion won share buyback had limitations in driving the index beyond downward support of the KOSPI. On the online bulletin board, Ruliweb's 'Why Microsoft fired 60,000 people' (approximately 38,000 views), 'Why Micron especially hates Apple' (approximately 18,000 views), and Clien's 'They say the AI ​​bubble is on the verge of bursting...' ' (8,146 times), Bobae Dream's 'The pleasant rebellion of memory companies has begun' (3,923 times), Ddanzi Ilbo's 'Wow, the cosmetics are scary' (2,668 times), Soccer Line's '(Pic) This is the current status of visual cosmetics semiconductors... TXT' (2,290 times), and 'Wow, Google down 13.7%' (1,949 times), MLB Park's 'Tomorrow's director will be disastrous again' (1,593 times), Damoang's '[Stock Market] What are Samjeon hiding? Articles such as 'What are foreigners looking at...' (1,100 times) continued, examining the impact Big Tech's cash burn and soaring memory prices will have on domestic semiconductor stocks.

The government and the ruling party, including the Ministry of Employment and Labor and the Ministry of Finance and Economy, have decided to completely overhaul the retirement pension system, which has accumulated reserves exceeding 542 trillion won, 21 years after its introduction in 2005. As early as the first half of 2028, a fund-type retirement pension run by a professional trustee will be fully introduced by tying together the savings of individual workers and small and medium-sized enterprises. In 2030, the existing retirement payment system accumulated by companies within the company will be abolished and unified into a retirement pension accumulated at external financial institutions, thereby blocking arrears of wages and retirement benefits at the source. Weighing the participation of large financial companies, including the National Pension Service, as management entities has also begun in earnest. Meanwhile, in the financial sector, the combined net profit of the five major financial holding companies in the third quarter was only KRW 6.5114 trillion, down 5.9% from the previous quarter due to the sluggish performance of non-banking companies such as securities and insurance, and it is reported that Goldman Sachs is negotiating with SK Square to invest approximately KRW 700 to KRW 800 billion to acquire more than 60% of the shares of T Map Mobility, the No. 1 navigation company in Korea.

There was a mix of excitement and expectations regarding external orders and real estate supply policies. In the Czech Republic's Dukovany new nuclear power plant construction project worth 27 trillion won, 15 months of construction negotiations between Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power, Daewoo Engineering & Construction, and Doosan Energy consortium over construction costs and contract conditions finally broke down. KHNP's stance is that it will meet the construction schedule by selecting a new construction company by July of next year, but with the plunge in construction stocks, concerns have been raised about a blow to the external credibility of K-Nuclear Power Plant. In PGR21, the article '[General] KHNP announces breakdown of construction contract negotiations for Dukovany Nuclear Power Plant in the Czech Republic' (4,412 times) received attention. In the metropolitan area housing market, when the government announced a plan to supply 76,700 households in 6 new housing sites using greenbelts within 5km of the border of Seoul, Guri City welcomed it as a turning point for becoming a self-sufficient city, while Gimpo City protested against the lack of metropolitan transportation measures. In Clien, there was continued debate over the effectiveness of residential land development, such as 'It's really too much to loosen the greenbelt in Gyeonggi-do' (5,526 times), 'Isn't this the only reason you don't like rental housing?' (4,424 times), and 'Seoul apartment triple strength' (4,390 times).

The National Assembly Steering Committee's afternoon audit of the Blue House, which was held for the first time in 12 years since 2014, was disrupted due to a head-on clash between the ruling and opposition parties. The Democratic Party of Korea called for an apology and resignation from People Power Party lawmaker Kim Tae-gyu, labeling his remarks as 'advocacy of civil war', while the People Power Party responded by comparing Lee Jae-myung's government personnel appointments to 'Silla's bone rank system centered on the Seongnam-Gyeonggi line and the defense team', resulting in repeated high-stakes and suspensions. In the National Index Survey (NBS), which was released amid controversy over pressure on the judiciary, 45% of respondents were 'against' the impeachment of Supreme Court Justice Cho Hee-dae, 11 percentage points ahead of 'Agree' (34%). In response to President Lee's successive SNS messages, the Blue House emphasized that 'direct communication is an important responsibility of the president'. Debate within supporters continued on bulletin boards such as Ddanji Ilbo (2,499 and 2,437 times) and Soccer Line (2,386 times).

On the diplomatic and security front, the evolution of abnormalities between Korea and the United States and energy security diplomacy in the Middle East unfolded simultaneously. As controversy arose over the refusal to issue a U.S. visa to Rep. Jin Seong-jun, chairman of the National Assembly's National Defense Committee following Rep. Chung Cheong-rae, the U.S. State Department stated that U.S. national interests are the top priority in the Trump administration's visa review, and Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, who was visiting the U.S., requested the U.S. to expedite the issuance of visas for lawmakers, saying it was undesirable to delay visas for lawmakers. Meanwhile, as war clouds in the Middle East continue, with Yemen's Houthi rebels claiming to have attacked six locations, including Saudi Arabia's Riyadh Airport and Aramco oil facilities, President Lee Jae-myung spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the phone to express his condolences over the damage and thanked Korea for providing priority supply of crude oil to Korea during the war. As 12 European countries decided to jointly release 42.6 million barrels of oil reserves by January next year and expectations for diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran overlapped, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell to $102 per barrel.